Moving Low-Carbon Transportation in Xinjiang: Evidence from STIRPAT and Rigid Regression Models

Jiefang Dong,Chun Deng,Rongrong Li,Jieyu Huang

doi:10.3390/su9010024

Abstract

With the rapid economic development of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the area’s transport sector has witnessed significant growth, which in turn has led to a large increase in carbon dioxide emissions. As such, calculating of the carbon footprint of Xinjiang’s transportation sector and probing the driving factors of carbon dioxide emissions are of great significance to the region’s energy conservation and environmental protection. This paper provides an account of the growth in the carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s transportation sector during the period from 1989 to 2012. We also analyze the transportation sector’s trends and historical evolution. Combined with the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model and ridge regression, this study further quantitatively analyzes the factors that influence the carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s transportation sector. The results indicate the following: (1) the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s transportation sector both continued to rise rapidly during this period; their average annual growth rates were 10.8% and 9.1%, respectively; (2) the carbon emissions of the transportation sector come mainly from the consumption of diesel and gasoline, which accounted for an average of 36.2% and 2.6% of carbon emissions, respectively; in addition, the overall carbon emission intensity of the transportation sector showed an “S”-pattern trend within the study period; (3) population density plays a dominant role in increasing carbon dioxide emissions. Population is then followed by per capita GDP and, finally, energy intensity. Cargo turnover has a more significant potential impact on and role in emission reduction than do private vehicles. This is because road freight is the primary form of transportation used across Xinjiang, and this form of transportation has low energy efficiency. These findings have important implications for future efforts to reduce the growth of transportation-based carbon dioxide emissions in Xinjiang and for any effort to construct low-carbon and sustainable environments.

Highlights

The CO2 emissions generated by human activities constitute one of the most significant contributory factors to global warming
The total carbon emissions increased from 5.35 million tons to 16.53 million tons
The results of our study indicate that, during the study period, the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s transportation sector both exhibited an upward trend

Summary

Introduction

The CO2 emissions generated by human activities constitute one of the most significant contributory factors to global warming. As pointed out by the IPCC in its fifth assessment report, of the total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2014, urban transportation accounted for 13.1% This made urban transportation the third highest emission sector, behind only energy supply and industrial production [1]. Located in the northwest border area of China, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is China’s largest provincial-level administrative region, and major energy supply base. The energy consumption of the transportation sector experienced a rapid rise, from 10.71 million tons of standard coal to an amazing 85.54 million tons of standard coal. This translates to an average annual growth rate of 9.5% [5]. Accurate monitoring and accounting of the transportation sector’s carbon emissions and a quantitative analysis of those factors that influence carbon emissions will provide important policy implications for the green and low-carbon development of transportation in Xinjiang

Methods

Results

Conclusion