Abstract
Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas, specifically in traditionally-managed landscapes and abandoned cropland.
Highlights
Protected areas continue to be one of the main instruments in the biodiversity conservation toolbox, and the total area benefiting of legal protection has been increasing worldwide [1]
We did not model the distributions of Rana esculenta and Rana ridibunda, which together represent a species complex difficult to distinguish in the field [25], Rana dalmatina and Eryx jaculus and Natrix natrix
Our study showed that the forecasted climate changes will trigger important shifts of species ranges, with most species suffering range contractions (‘loser‘ species), while a few will benefit (‘winner’ species)
Summary
Protected areas continue to be one of the main instruments in the biodiversity conservation toolbox, and the total area benefiting of legal protection has been increasing worldwide [1]. Despite concerted efforts towards designing resilient protected areas, and implementing ecologically-relevant conservation strategies, reserve networks still fail to conserve important biodiversity elements (species- to biome-level misrepresentation) [3]. Adding to these issues, the world’s current protected areas network faces additional challenges from climate change [4]. In the context of future climate change, range shifts are a key response, and can affect species representation in protected areas Species vary in their dispersal potential, and limited dispersal may hinder the ability of species to track potentially suitable climate space [12]. From a practical conservation perspective, it is critical to evaluate potential spatial mismatches between predicted range shifts of threatened reptiles and amphibians and the extent of protected areas, and evaluate emerging conservation challenges (e.g., loser species) and opportunities (e.g., winner species; sensu [15])
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