Abstract
Why would a sitting legislator leave the party on whose label she has won election and join another parliamentary party? The premise of this paper is that a politician's calculus on party affiliation involves not only what she stands to gain or lose, but also when the potential gains or losses likely occur. The theoretical model here demonstrates that an MP times a shift in party allegiance so as to minimize losses and maximize gains. The empirical illustrations bearing on our predictions afford variation on the key parameter of electoral laws and drive home the importance of timing in mp partisan strategy. Our theoretical and empirical findings on when incumbents switch party during a legislative term shed new light on why they switch.
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