Moving from exploring on-farm opportunities with a single to a multi-year focus: Implications for decision making

Abstract

In pastoral grazing farm systems there is growing awareness of the importance of including year to year variation in pasture grown when analysing and designing appropriate and more profitable systems. Few authors have clarified how an optimal farm system incorporates inter-temporal variability. This paper shows for a Whanganui hill country sheep and beef farm, that inclusion of inter-annual variation in pasture growth rate results in a more dynamic farm system than when only average pasture production data are used in a new, multi-year farm optimisation model. The variation in stock numbers, sale dates and pasture covers were quantified, as was the variation in farm profitability (measured as Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation, EBITDA). Interestingly, there was only a small difference in Net Present Value between the two approaches over 10 year's simulation. Keywords: farm systems, variability, INFORM, multiyear