Movers and Stayers

Abstract

Abstract Democrats once dominated the “Solid South.” By the turn of the 21st century, Republicans had taken control. We are in the midst of the dawning of new, more progressive era. Theories explaining Republican growth provide little guidance, but a new perspective—Movers and Stayers theory—explains this recent growth in Democratic support and the ways in which population growth has produced it. Migratory patterns play a significant role in southern politics. Young, well-educated in-migrants fostered Republican growth in the last century. Today, these increasingly progressive young, well-educated movers are growing the Democratic Party. Movers bring their politics to their new communities. Their progressivism fosters the same among long-term residents (stayers) in their new communities. But the declining communities they left show the effects of their exit. In our racialized partisan environment, white stayers respond to the threat of declining communities by shifting to the right and identifying with the Republican Party. Conversely, African Americans respond to community threat by maintaining their progressivism. Few Latinos live in declining communities; Latino stayers in fast growing communities become more Democratic. While movers of retirement age are more conservative than younger movers, they are more liberal than those who retire in place—not quite the demographic windfall Republicans in aging areas have hoped for. These dynamics are altering the southern political landscape, and differences between growing areas and declining areas are accelerating. Absent a wholesale reinvention of southern politics along the lines of class or (possibly) age, the current partisan trajectory does not bode well for Republicans. The COVID-19 pandemic will not change that.