Movement to the East: development of Russian energy exports to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

Diversification of energy exports in favor of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region in a tense geopolitical situation is one of the most important tasks for Russia. The characteristics of the current state of the oil and gas markets in the Asia-Pacific region are presented. The analysis made it possible to estimate the shares of key suppliers of oil and gas to the countries of this region, as well as to determine the current role of Russian supplies. A special place in the work is given to the analysis of foreign sanctions against Russia. Potential risks, including those associated with the tanker fleet, which can have a negative impact over the horizon of 5–7 years, are analyzed, and key advantages that make it possible to maintain the volume of energy exports are highlighted. It is noted that Russia is already present in the markets of a significant number of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, but only in China it occupies a leading position. It is concluded that Russian companies should expand the number of consuming countries without concentrating on the largest consumers, such as India and China, which have supply diversification strategies and also act as potential targets for secondary sanctions due to the purchase of Russian goods. A promising direction of such a policy is not only the expansion and development of its own supply infrastructure to the Asia-Pacific region, but also the search for possible joint projects to create/expand the infrastructure of consumer countries. The result is an analysis of the possibilities for expanding Russia's participation in meeting the energy demand of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, taking into account logistics, environmental and technological risks.