MOUTAI Stock Price Prediction Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are effectively utilized in time series analysis and forecasts. With the focus on MOUTAI, one of the brands in liquor industry that has absorbed great public interest and wide acceptance, this paper studies the pattern of the closing price of MOUTAI stock, fits the data using ARIMA model, and eventually forecasts over the future horizon. Based on daily closing price of the specific stock, a few transformations of the data are carried out, making the fitting process of ARIMA model more accurate. The best-fit ARIMA model is studied and the forecast re-sults are analyzed. According to the increasing trend throughout the interval studied and the unforeseen peak at the beginning of 2021, the causation is discussed: the consumer trend. That is, people are inclined to consume more liquor products during mood swings, which is likely to happen during lock downs and the deteriorated epidemic worldwide. This study provides more insights to the potential investors and buyers of MOUTAI stock and products, and furthermore the liquor industry, giving an overview of the patterns shown in the stocks closing price and the causation of the forecast results.