Mourning Dove Productivity in California during 1992-95: Was It Sufficient to Balance Mortality?

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Mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) populations have declined steadily in the western United States since 1966. We investigated the role of recruitment in this long-term problem by studying nesting ecology of mourning doves from March to September 1992-95, in the northern Central Valley, California, USA, We studied nesting doves in blue oak woodlands (Quercus douglasii), willow-cottonwood riparian habitats (Salix spp., Populus fremontii), and commercial walnut, prune, pistachio, and cherry orchards. We used 3,047 nests for our analyses, Doves initiated nests from 14 March to 28 August; nesting season lengths ranged from 105 to 158 days. Only 2-5% of nests remained active after 1 September each year, and latest dates that young fledged ranged from 28 August to 21 September. Mayfield estimates of nest success rates varied inconsistently among study areas; annual success rates ranged from 35-59% for incubation, 49-79% for brooding, and 22-45% for total. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) analysis showed that total nest success was higher during years with relatively warm-dry springs (March-May, 1992 and 1994 [35-45% success]) than years with relatively cool-wet springs (1993 and 1995 [22-37% success]). Additionally, AIC analysis showed that fledglings produced/pair and fledglings/nesting attempt were highest during the warm-dry years. Likewise, we recorded more total pairs, nests, and total fledglings, and longer nesting seasons during the warm-dry years. The lower limit of the 95% confidence interval for fledglings produced/pair for all years exceeded the value of 2.5 previously estimated with banding data from 1967-74 as the value required to maintain breeding populations in California. Thus, if our productivity estimates reflected the general population, and annual survival rates had not changed, recruitment should have been adequate to produce an increasing population. Since this was not occurring, managers should complement population surveys with annual banding and harvest surveys to enable thorough examination of the relationships among survival, productivity, and abundance.