Mountain Weather Prediction: Phenomenological Challenges and Forecast Methodology

Abstract

This chapter summarizes the modern practice of weather analysis and forecasting in complex terrain with special emphasis placed on the role of humans. Weather in areas of complex terrain affects roughly half of the world’s land surface, population, and surface runoff, and frequently poses a threat to lives and property. Mountain weather phenomena also impact a diverse group of users, which may have both beneficial and detrimental implications on societal and economic levels. Advances in forecast skill derive not only from advances in numerical weather prediction, geophysical observations, and cyber infrastructure, but also improvements in the utilization of these advances by operational weather forecasters. Precipitation skill scores during the past two decades, for example, show that operational weather forecasters have maintained a consistent threat score advantage over numerical precipitation forecasts. Although the role of human forecasters is evolving, for many applications, the so-called “human-machine mix” continues to provide an improved product over what can be produced by automated systems alone. To produce the best forecasts possible for the benefit of society, it is crucial for the mountain meteorologist to possess an in-depth knowledge of mountain weather phenomena and the tools and techniques used for atmospheric observations and prediction in complex terrain.