Motivated Optimism and Workplace Risk

Abstract

Abstract We provide field evidence that individuals engage in motivated optimism in the face of impending risk. Congruent with a dynamic anticipatory utility model, we demonstrate that belief distortions are time- and stake-dependent. Our study leverages variation in the time span between the survey and the externally imposed date when workers are required to return to their workplaces during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that as the work return date approaches, individuals become relatively more optimistic about the increased infection risk associated with going back to the workplace, and about how severely their health may be impacted if they get infected. Belief distortions are larger among those facing potential health complications conditional on infection. Our results are informative about when and for whom interventions will be most effective.