Mostly DNA, a Bit of Glucose, and the Next 50 Years

Abstract

In 1970, the great Francis Crick wrote that one can only forecast progress in molecular and cell biology for 30 years (Crick, 1970 ). It is amazing how correct Crick was when he made his predictions for 2000. Here, I have been asked to predict important changes in molecular and cell biology that may occur over the next 50 years—a challenging task indeed. Who can know how right I am in my attempt to predict the trends of molecular and cell biology in 2060? The continuity of science is the key motif here, and my predictions are aimed at readers in 2010 as well as to anyone who may read this in 2060. I have an advantage over a younger generation of scientists as I have experienced the changes that can occur over 50 years. In 1960, I graduated from high school in Tokyo and entered the University of Tokyo. Bear in mind that the Journal of Molecular Biology (JMB) was founded only one year before this in 1959. Now, in 2010, I may be the oldest investigator at the Yoshida campus of Kyoto University, where I still have a laboratory that will close early next year. Although in pottery, a 50-year-old plate can look as if it were new, 50 years is a long time for an individual research scientist, as well as for the field of molecular and cell biology. Mitsuhiro Yanagida The first thing I learned as an undergraduate student was the operon theory of bacterial gene regulation. The genetic code was solved, and the Central Dogma prevailed. At the time I hoped to become a decent molecular biologist. Over many years, my research emphasis progressed from molecule to cell. I learned about bacteriophage assembly in my youth and studied the segregation mechanisms of mitotic chromosome for decades in Kyoto University. Chromosome segregation is now a well-established field and no longer in a pioneering stage; however, many interesting and important questions remain. Six years ago, I started to study the genetics of the metabolic controls that support the longevity of nondividing (postmitotic) cells under nutrient starvation in Okinawa. Metabolic control of cellular longevity is an area of intense investigation and the logical framework to identify the molecules important for longevity in model organisms is underway. I now study the nutritional control of cellular proliferation and quiescence. The subject existed and was thought to be old-fashioned 50 years ago by students like me. Curiously enough, it is now an exciting topic to me. If I were to summarize my 50 years of study in one phrase, I would say I studied “mostly DNA and a bit of glucose” (Yanagida, 2009a ,b ). In addition to DNA, RNA, and protein, I believe that glucose is centrally important to our understanding of life. Finally, my purpose here is to present my vision for the future of molecular and cell biology. I predict that 1) the number of researchers working in the fields of molecular and cell biology will increase globally, particularly in Africa, South America, and Asia; 2) medical, biotechnological, and agricultural research areas will be the most competitive and will require larger commitments of both private and government funds; 3) in the near term, obesity will be the most prevalent disease in North America, but it will be cured by 2060; diabetes may also be cured by then, but I am less certain of this; 4) topics of basic molecular and cell biology that will flourish in 2060 are already known; 5) before 2040, revolutionary technologies will be developed that will completely change our present view of molecular and cell biology; these may be related to the production of cellular energy, fast or slow intracellular reactions, identification of unknown metabolites, formation–dissociation of supramolecules, and synthesis–degradation of organelles (or perhaps even cells); 6) the origin of life and the origin of species will be the subjects of intense research; 7) current molecular and cell biology will be merged with environmental and evolutional biology; and 8) the study of biodiversity will be as important as the study of medicine and health. In 2060, human beings will be wisely modest to behave as just one of many species on the earth.