Abstract
This article is the winner of the Real Estate Finance manuscript prize (sponsored by Fannie Mae Foundation) presented at the 2001 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting.Studies of mortgage termination decisions typically rely on a competing risks framework comparing defaults and prepayments. While useful tools have been developed to approximate the values of these competing default and prepayment options, the available metrics do not adequately account for the role of the conditional volatility of interest rates and housing prices in option valuation. Using a sample of 1,428 mortgage loan payment histories, this study finds that exponential GARCH estimates of the conditional volatility of housing prices and interest rates influence mortgage termination decisions in a predictable manner. Specifically, increased housing price volatility is shown to enhance default option values, while increased interest rate volatility is shown to enhance prepayment option values. Therefore, it would appear that conditional volatility represents a more refined input into the competing risks option framework.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
