Mortality trend on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Liaoning province, 1984-2010

Abstract

To evaluate the mortality trend of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among residents in Liaoning province during the period of 1984-2010. The cut-points were ascertained by Monte Carlo Permutation test in COPD mortality trend lines of Poisson regression with Joinpoint Regression Program. The annual percent changes (APC) before and after the cut-points and the average annual percent change (AAPC) of COPD mortality were examined during the period. Significant declining trends on COPD mortality among the urban population during 1984-2010 and that of rural population during 1999-2009 were found. The standardized urban COPD mortality rate by Chinese population declined from 243.93 per 100 thousand in 1984 to 33.13 per 100 thousand in 2010. The urban 26 years AAPC was -5.8%. While the mortality in the rural population decreased from 251.33 per 100 thousand in 1999 to 102.25 per 100 thousand in 2009 in the same population. The rural 10 years' AAPC was -6.8%. The total trend of COPD mortality reduction was mainly resulted from the fast decline of bronchitis mortality. The AAPC of COPD mortality of the urban population was -9.0% and greater than that of the rural population (-6.8%) from 1999 to 2009. The urban population had a lower COPD mortality than that of the rural population. In urban area, males had a higher COPD mortality than females, however, in the rural area, males had a lower COPD mortality than the females. The COPD mortality among the residents of Liaoning province declined significantly from 1984 to 2010. Further studies are needed to confirm the viewpoint of WHO that the prevalence of COPD would have a continuous increasing trend in China.