[Mortality risk for oral and oropharyngeal carcinomas in Thuringia: a population-based analysis].

Abstract

This population-based study investigates the impact of HPV association on overall survival (OS) of oral cavity (OSCC) and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) in Thuringia and the incidence of HPV-positive (HPV+) and HPV-negative (HPV-) tumors. A total of 308 patients (83.4% men; mean age 57.6 years) with a primary diagnosis of OSCC (38%) or OPSCC (62%) from 2008 were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were obtained for the variables. According to Ang's risk classification, patients were classified as low risk of death (HPV+, nonsmokers), intermediate risk (HPV+, smokers) and high risk of death (HPV-smokers). Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox multivariable regression analysis were performed to examine OS. 22.5% of OPSCC was HPV+ (incidence: 1.89/100,000 population; thereof 80.1% smokers). The proportion of OSCC with HPV+ was 8.5% (incidence: 0.44/100,000; thereof 78.6% smokers). The median follow-up was 31 months. HPV+ patients had significantly better 5-year OS than HPV- patients (81% vs. 49%; p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis lower OS were associated with: HPV-patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-6.4; p = 0.001), high risk of death according to Ang (HR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.0-5.4; p = 0.049), older age (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.1-2.4; p = 0.01), T3/T4-classification (HR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.3-3.2; p = 0.001) and the presence of distant metastases (HR = 2.7; 95% CI = 1.6-4.4; p < 0.001). HPV+ non-smokers were minority in Thuringia. The majority of HPV+ patients had an intermediate risk of death due to cigarette smoking.