Mortality projections for scenarios of temperature and air pollution in Norway

Abstract

TPS 664: Climate change: temperature effects 2, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 27, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Background/Aim: This study estimates for Norway, the current temperature and air pollution related mortality and the change in mortality over the century under composite climate and socio-economic scenarios. Methods: We use a historical dataset (1968-2010) of daily mortality and temperature and perform a time series analysis for four regions in Norway. We apply a distributed non-linear model using cubic splines to model both the exposure-response function and the lagged-response dimensions, accounting for 21 days of lag. We project temperature related mortality for the four regions for the high climate RCP8.5 and low climate RCP2.6 scenarios until the year 2100. Using recently updated estimations of air pollution concentrations, we calculate related mortalities for Norway attributable to PM2.5 and ozone until 2050 using available risk functions. Results: Under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario, the attributable fraction of deaths due to temperature remains almost constant over time (around 5%), for cold-related deaths, and around 0.3%, for heat-associated deaths. For the RCP 8.5 climate projection: we estimate compared to 2010, a 7-fold increase in the fraction of deaths associated with heat in 2090-2099, and a 2-fold decrease of the fraction of deaths associated to cold temperatures. Assuming a medium population growth of the population, this implies a total of 39300 (95% CI 24200-54400) deaths in 2090-2099 in the RCP 2.6, and 32950 (95% CI 18500-47500) deaths in the RCP 8.5. The attributable fraction of air pollution related mortality is estimated at 3% and remains relatively constant until 2050. Conclusion: The results indicate that significant temperature related health burdens can be expected in Norway as a result of climate change. The cold related burden dominates over the near-term with heat related impacts gaining significance in the longer term. We identify a need for climate adaptation efforts that can result in co-benefits through reduced air pollution.