Mortality of Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias in China: Past and Future Decades.

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to explore the distribution features and trends of dementia mortality in China from 2011 to 2020 and make a prediction for the next decade. Methods: Mortality-relevant data were gathered from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Disease Surveillance Points system. Joinpoint regression was applied to evaluate the trends. Results: Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) of AD and other dementias increased from 3.7 per 100,000 to 6.2 per 100,000 in 2011-2020, with an Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of 5.3% (95% CI 4.4%-6.3%). Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) slightly decreased from 5.0 per 100,000 to 4.1 per 100,000 in 2011-2020, with AAPC of -0.4% (95% CI -2.5%-1.8%). CMR will increase to 9.66 per 100,000 while ASMR will decline to 3.42 per 100,000 in the following decade. Conclusion: The upward trend in CMR and downward trend in ASMR suggested the further development of population aging and dementia mortality in the past and future decades. In China, there were gender, urban-rural, regional and age differences.