Mortality in hepatectomy: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease as a predictor of death using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database

Abstract

The predictive value of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) for mortality after hepatectomy is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate whether MELD score predicts death after hepatectomy and to identify the most useful score type for predicting mortality. We hypothesized that an increase in this score is correlated with 30-day mortality in patients undergoing hepatic resection. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for hepatectomy. Original MELD, United Network of Organ Sharing-modified MELD (uMELD), integrated MELD (i-MELD), and sodium-corrected MELD (MELD-Na) scores were calculated. Mortality was analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. MELD types were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. From 2005 to 2011, 11,933 hepatic resections were performed, including 7,519 partial, 2,104 right, and 1,210 left resections, and 1,100 trisectionectomies. The mean duration of stay was 8.4 ± 22.0 days, and there were 275 deaths (2.4%). The 30-day mortality rates were 1.8%, 6.9%, 15.4%, and 25% according to uMELD strata of 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, and ≥ 30, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that increasing MELD stratum was independently associated with higher mortality (P < .001) for all MELD types. The uMELD had the largest effect size (odds ratio [OR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.20), whereas i-MELD had the narrowest CI (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.10-1.17) and largest area under the ROC curve. The postoperative 30-day mortality after hepatectomy increases with increasing MELD score across all MELD types. There is a 16% increase in the odds of mortality for each point increase in uMELD.