Mortality from circulatory diseases as a reflection of demographic aging

Abstract

Introduction. Even a decade ago, an increase in mortality from circulatory diseases (CVD) in Russia until 2050 was predicted, in parallel with an increase in number of people older than working age. The forecast did not materialize.
 The purpose is to identify the relationship between the level and structure of mortality from CVD and the proportion of elderly people.
 Materials and methods. Official Rosstat data on mortality in Moscow and the Russian Federation for period 1975–2019 were used. There was made a comparison of age patterns of mortality from CVD at the beginning and end of the analysed period in the country and in the capital separately for men and women. For simplicity of calculations, the trend in the gain in mortality with increasing age was approximated by an exponential function in the Microsoft Excel Software.
 Results. Since 2003 to 2019 in the Russian Federation, mortality from CVD was found to decline among men and women by 2.0 and 2.2 times. In Moscow, with a 2.3- and 2.2-fold decrease in mortality from CVD. During this period losses fell as a result of premature death from CVD by 1.8 and 1.9 times in men and women, as well as in Moscow.
 Limitations. The quality of analysed data is limited by quality of coding of the causes of death in different regions and by accuracy of estimate of age structure of the population in period between population censuses.
 Conclusions. Demographic aging does not lead to an increase in the contribution of CVD to the mortality of the population. The decrease in mortality from CVD significantly contributes to the growth of life expectancy and is accompanied by an increase in the proportion of elderly people. Only during periods of increased mortality, the contribution of CVD to it is directly proportional to proportion of elderly people. Age structure of mortality from CVD indicates the need to strengthen measures to prevent mortality.