Mortality Compression and Longevity Risk

Abstract

Mortality improvements, especially of the elderly, have been a common phenomenon since the end of World War II. The longevity risk becomes a major concern in many countries because of underestimating the scale and speed of prolonged life. In this study we explore the increasing life expectancy by examining the basic properties of survival curves. Specifically, we check if there are signs of mortality compression (i.e., rectangularization of the survival curve) and evaluate what it means to designing annuity products. Based on the raw mortality rates, we propose an approach to verify if there is mortality compression. We then apply the proposed method to the mortality rates of Japan, Sweden, and the United States, using the Human Mortality Database. Unlike previous results using the graduated mortality rates, we found no obvious signs that mortality improvements are slowing down. This indicates that human longevity is likely to increase, and longevity risk should be seriously considered in pricing annuity products.