Abstract
To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future. In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of 1.45 /105 at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higher than females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rate increased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China. The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the next five years.
Highlights
Malignant Tumors is the leading cause of death among city dwellers, and the second most frequent cause of death in rural residents (Cao et al, 2011)
Base on the fluctuating mortality rate among Chinese in recent decades, it can be found that the standardize nasopharyngeal carcinoma death rate was increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of 1.45 /105 at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards( Figure 1)
Differences between the urban and rural Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma mortality Comparing the NPC standard mortality in urban and rural areas, the city dwellers had a higher rate than the rural residents during the past two decades (Especially in 1999,the crude rate was 2.58/105 in the city, 1.49 times that of the rate in the country)
Summary
Malignant Tumors is the leading cause of death among city dwellers, and the second most frequent cause of death in rural residents (Cao et al, 2011). This study analyze the data of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality rate in China from 1991 to 2013, searching the risk factors, gender, age, urban-rural differences and geographic distribution of NPC, providing scientific evidence for prevention and control, and offering prevalence survey for further research. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Results: In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of 1.45 /105 at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the five years
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