Abstract
BackgroundLow- and middle-income countries are currently facing the massive public health challenge of road traffic injuries. The lack of effective surveillance systems hinders proper assessment of epidemiologic status and intervention priorities. The objective of our study was to estimate the mortality and morbidity attributable to road crashes in Bamako, Mali using the capture-recapture method.MethodsDuring the 1 January, 2012–31 April, 2012 period, we collected data on road traffic crashes from the road accident registers of the police forces of Bamako, Mali on the one hand, and from a register kept by health facilities in the same area. An automatic, then manual matching procedure was performed to find pairs of records related to the same crash victims. The number of victims and the number of fatalities were estimated by the capture-recapture method using the Chapman estimator.ResultsThe health facility and the police registries included 3587 and 1432 records, respectively. The matching procedure identified 603 common records, 31 of which were fatalities. The annual incidence estimate for road victims was 1038 in 100 000 and the annual incidence estimate for road fatalities was 12 in 100 000. Victims from both sources were more likely to be male, in the 15–34 age group, and almost half of all injured road users and two in three fatalities were using motorized two-wheelers. One victim out of five was a pedestrian.ConclusionOur estimates are in line with available literature data from low-income countries. While more cases were reported by health facilities than by police forces, we believe that an effective surveillance system should not be based solely on medical reports as much would be missing as regards the crash circumstances and characteristics.
Highlights
While more cases were reported by health facilities than by police forces, we believe that an effective surveillance system should not be based solely on medical reports as much would be missing as regards the crash circumstances and characteristics
According to the last WHO report on road safety, road traffic crashes account for more than 1.24 million deaths and 20 to 50 million injuries each year worldwide
The number of road deaths per 100 000 population as estimated from the police records was similar to that reported for the country as a whole in 2010 (4.5 deaths per 100 000) as compiled in the WHO country profile provided along with the WHO 2013 road safety report [1]
Summary
According to the last WHO report on road safety, road traffic crashes account for more than 1.24 million deaths and 20 to 50 million injuries each year worldwide. Of all fatalities on the world's roads, 91% occur in low- and middle-income countries, even though these countries have approximately half the world's vehicles [1, 2]. In those countries, more than half of the victims are vulnerable road users (pedestrians, motorcyclists and cyclists) and collective transportation users [3]. Road traffic crashes are predicted to result in the deaths of around 1.9 million people annually by 2020 [4]. Low- and middle-income countries are currently facing the massive public health challenge of road traffic injuries. The objective of our study was to estimate the mortality and morbidity attributable to road crashes in Bamako, Mali using the capture-recapture method
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