Mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients during surges of SARS-CoV-2 alpha (B.1.1.7) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate the death proportion and death risk of COVID-19 hospitalized patients over time and in different surges of COVID-19. This multi-center observational study was conducted from March 21, 2021 to October 3, 2021 which included the alpha and delta SARS-CoV-2 surges occurred in April and August in Tehran, respectively. The risk of COVID-19 death was compared in different months of admission. A total of 270,624 patients with COVID-19, of whom 6.9% died, were admitted to hospitals in Tehran province. Compared to patients admitted in March, a higher risk of COVID-19 death was observed among patients admitted to the hospital in July (HR 1.28; 95% CI 1.17, 1.40), August (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.28, 1.52), September (HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.25, 1.50) and October (HR 4.63; 95% CI 2.77, 7.74). The ICU death proportion was 36.8% (95% CI: 35.5, 38.1) in alpha surge and increased significantly to 39.8 (95% CI 38.6, 41.1) in delta surge. The risk of COVID-19 death was significantly higher in delta surge compared to alpha surge (HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.17, 1.27). Delta surge was associated with a higher risk of death compared to alpha surge. High number of hospitalizations, a shortage of hospital beds, ICU spaces and medical supplies, poor nutritional status of hospitalized patients, and lack of the intensivist physicians or specialized nurses in the ICU were factors that contributed to the high mortality rate in the delta surge in Iran.