Mortalities and Morbidities Trends of COVID-19 Infection, From Explosiveness to Aggressiveness, Understanding Gaps in System Response and Transmission Chain Events

Abstract

Background: Emerging and reemerging pathogens are global challenges for public health. Coronaviruses are enveloped RNA viruses that are distributed broadly among humans, other mammals, and birds and that cause respiratory, enteric, hepatic, and neurologic diseases. the high prevalence and wide distribution of coronaviruses, the large genetic diversity and frequent recombination of their genomes, and increasing human-animal interface activities, novel coronaviruses are likely to emerge periodically in humans owing to frequent cross-species infections and occasional spillover event. Objectives: To study the short-term morbidities and mortalities and international spread time trends of the N Corona Virus 2019 outbreak, to study, to study the explosiveness and aggressiveness of the outbreak and the gaps in response. Methodology: Outbreak events follow up and observation study over two months has been carried out through daily statistical reports issuing by world health organizations as all as different national authorities regarding (mortalities and morbidities incidents) all over the world with specific focusing on china statistics as main sources of the outbreak. The operational definition of variables regarding case confirmation, case recovery, case admission, and case contacts has been adopted as per WHO definitions. Unofficial statistical reports excluded as a source of data. Results: The current study showed that the number of cases of N corona-virus 2019 infection, started with (41) cases at the beginning of January 2020 increased up to 855 cases in 23rd January 2020 and 7700 cases of infection in 29th of January 2020 which keep raising and reached up to 78823 by 23rd of February as for mortalities, the current research revealed that the number of death was only (1) case in 4th of Feb 2020 increased up to 25 deaths in 23rd of February 2020 and keep raising reached up to 170 deaths in January 29th, 2020 and 2462 death case in 23rd of Feb 2020. In regards of the geographical spread of the N corona-virus 2019 infection outbreak, the study showed that on January 4th, 2020 only one country was affected which was china, on 8th of January 2020 two countries were affected as Thailand discovered cases, on 13th of January 3 countries were affected by adding Singapore to the list, on Feb 5th 27 countries reported incidence of N Corona-virus 2019 infection and reached up to 35 countries by 23rd of February. Conclusions: The natural history and course of the current outbreak revealed high explosive nature linked to significant aggressiveness in terms of complications and mortalities, within only two months period speeded out to 35 countries worldwide and reached you 80000 incidences within only two months. The study forecasted that the peak of the outbreak is not yet attended and more dramatic events still have high potentials.