More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century

Abstract

Increases in air temperature lead to increased dryness of the air and potentially develops increased dryness in the soil. Extreme dryness (in the soil and/or in the atmosphere) affects the capacity of ecosystems for functioning and for modulating the climate. Here, we used long-term high temporal resolution (daily) soil moisture (SM) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) data of high spatial resolution (∼0.1° × 0.1°) to show that compared to the reference period (1950–1990), the overall frequency of extreme soil dryness, extreme air dryness, and extreme compound dryness (i.e., co-occurrence of extreme soil dryness and air dryness) has increased by 1.2-fold [0.8,1.6] (median [10th,90th percentile], 1.6-fold [1,2.3], and 1.7-fold [0.9,2.5], respectively, over the last 31 years (1991–2021) across Europe. Our results also indicate that this increase in frequency of extreme compound dryness (between reference and 1991–2021 period) is largely due to increased SM-VPD coupling across Northern Europe, and due to decreasing SM and/or increasing VPD trend across Central and Mediterranean Europe. Furthermore, under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) emission scenario, this increase in frequency of extreme compound dryness would be 3.3-fold [2.0,5.8], and 4.6-fold [2.3,11.9] by mid-21st century (2031–2065) and late-21st century (2066–2100), respectively. Additionally, we segregated the changes in frequency of extreme dryness across the most recent (year 2021) land cover types in Europe to show that croplands, broadleaved forest, and urban areas have experienced more than twice as much extreme dryness during 1990–2021 compared to the reference period of 1990–2021, which based on the future projection data will increase to more than three-fold by mid 21st century. Such future climate-change induced increase in extreme dryness could have negative implications for functioning of ecosystems and compromise their capacity to adapt to rapidly rising dryness levels.