Abstract
The number of police officers is generally a matter of great public and political concern. In the 2006 Swedish national election campaign, the opposition coalition promised that, if they were elected, they would increase police manpower by 15% by the year 2010. The coalition parties won and formed the new government; the promised increase in police numbers was subsequently achieved. The research question examined in this article is quite straightforward: would such an increase in the number of police officers have any impact on crime, in particular residential burglary? Police and crime data have been collected for the period 2001–12 from a random sample of 145 municipalities. Using a dynamic panel data analysis, a negative and statistically significant association between police levels and residential burglary is found. A 10% increase in police rate produces roughly a 2% decrease in burglary, controlling for the burglary rate in previous years and in adjacent municipalities, and also various social, economic and demographic characteristics. The results are in line with previous research findings, mainly from the US. In 2015, the Swedish police will be merged into a single national agency, the largest police reform in 50 years. The overall findings are discussed in relation to this reform.
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