More Options Offered for Long-Term Energy Solutions

Abstract

The debate on energy resources and population clearly includes thoughtful and concerned people on all sides. Responses appear to be based on one of two different models. In one model, population growth is slowing and will soon stabilize at a level at which both birth rate and death rate are low. Technological innovation and resource substitution will ensure that the Malthusian scenario of food and energy shortages, and their resultant malnutrition, disease, and wars need not occur.The error in this model is that it only applies to countries where women have access to education and employment and need not depend on childbearing for status and security. But much of the developing world has a rapid population growth rate, due to the application of medical technology that limits infant mortality, without the application of contraceptive technology that limits the birth rate. Rapid population growth limits the use of resources to those needed for survival, with little left for education and job training, especially for women. They have no alternative to childbearing as a way of ensuring for themselves a respectable place in society.In the other model, a high level of education and participation of women in the work force has stabilized the population in the developed countries. They have a low birth rate that balances a low death rate. But that is not happening in underdeveloped countries. In fact the frequent news reports of famines and local wars imply that unsustainable growth is occurring that will result in the Malthusian scenario in which population stability is achieved only with a high death rate to balance the high birth rate.The error in the second model is that the present situation need not perpetuate itself. Provided globalization continues and productive capacity and resource control shift from the minority to the majority, the Malthusian scenario for the majority could be avoided. This option would also require that women worldwide be given access to family planning technology. It is also essential that women receive education and job training so that they have an attractive alternative in life to that of continual childbearing.© 2005 American Institute of Physics.