More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting

Spencer P Chainey,Dennis L Lazarus

doi:10.3390/socsci10090348

Abstract

Research that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, these studies have yet to quantify how these explanations translate to the dynamics of offending activities. In the current study, we examine a key component related to offending dynamics: the size of the offender population. Using two capture-recapture techniques and a bootstrap simulation, estimates were generated of the sizes of the offender populations for three comparable cities in Brazil, Mexico, and England. Each of the techniques generated similar estimates for the offender population size for each city, but with these estimates varying substantially between the cities. This included the estimated offender population size for the Brazilian city being twenty-five times greater than that for the English city. Risk of arrest values were also generated, with these calculated to be substantially lower for the Brazilian and Mexican cities than for the English city. The results provide a quantification of criminal behavior that offers a potential new insight into the high levels of crime that are experienced in Latin American settings.

Highlights

Countries in Latin America experience some of the highest crime levels in the world (van Dijk et al 2021)
The macro conditions described in the previous section offer explanations for the variation in crime levels between different settings, the current study considers if offender population size is, in itself, a potential factor for why there are higher levels of crime in Latin American settings
Research that has examined the reasons for the high levels of crime in these settings has mainly focused on the influence of macrostructural conditions, such as social inequality and poverty, social and economic development, governance, and factors associated to institutional capacity

Summary

Introduction

Countries in Latin America experience some of the highest crime levels in the world (van Dijk et al 2021). Latin American countries compared to other regions of the world (Rivera 2016). Research about these structural, developmental, and institutional factors have been useful for improving our understanding of the high crime rates in Latin American settings, these studies have not adequately connected these macro conditions to the dynamics of criminal offending in these settings. Limited research exists on these factors in Latin American settings and how they explain the high levels of crime in the region. We take this first step by estimating the sizes of offender populations in Latin American settings and consider if this may contribute to the high levels of crime in these settings. We hypothesize that the size of the offender populations in Latin American settings are greater than that observed in a comparable setting

Objectives

Results

Discussion

Conclusion