Abstract
Abstract. Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast decarbonization of the electricity system. Renewable electricity generation is determined by the weather and is hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation of a coarse-scale fully renewable European electricity system based on downscaled high-resolution climate data from EURO-CORDEX. Following a high-emission pathway (RCP8.5), we find a robust but modest increase (up to 7 %) of backup energy in Europe through the end of the 21st century. The absolute increase in the backup energy is almost independent of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a highly interconnected European system. The increase is rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe resulting in intensified simultaneous generation shortfalls. Individual country contributions to European generation shortfall increase by up to 9 TWh yr−1, reflecting an increase of up to 4 %. Our results are strengthened by comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach based on circulation weather types.
Highlights
Massive reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed in order to reach the temperature goals defined in the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015; Schleussner et al, 2016b)
We report that backup energy in Europe increases under strong climate change by the end of the century
This finding is robust across all EUROCORDEX ensemble members
Summary
Massive reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed in order to reach the temperature goals defined in the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015; Schleussner et al, 2016b). In addition to the need of mitigating carbon emissions, a second interaction between the energy system and the climate system exists and becomes increasingly important with higher penetrations of renewable energies. Volatile renewable energy generation is driven by weather conditions which are subject to climate change. Large backup facilities are needed to guarantee a stable supply of electricity during periods of low wind and solar power generation (Rodriguez et al, 2014). Climate change affects the demand for electric power (Auffhammer et al, 2017) as well as the operation conditions for thermoelectric and hydroelectric power plants which serve as backup (van Vliet et al, 2016, 2012). Feedback effects of largescale wind fleets on atmospheric flows are limited (Vautard et al, 2014)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
