Morally Opposed? A Theory of Public Attitudes and Emerging Military Technologies

Abstract

Technology does not exist in a vacuum; it is mediated by individual and institutional choices about development and use. In the case of autonomous weapon systems (AWS), which select military targets without human involvement, the global policy debate emphasizes morally-driven public opposition. However, when faced with new, still-developing technology, public attitudes may reflect uncertainty about potential effectiveness as much as moral qualms. We theorize that the interaction between effectiveness and morality generates four ideal type reactions to emerging technologies: operational outcome, moral outcome, moral instinct, and technology skeptics. We test our theory through survey experiments from two waves of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. First, we establish the persistence of moral concerns in attitudes towards AWS. We then assess variation in moral convictions across individuals and validate the hypothesized categories. The categories create a new framework for investigating the role of morality in military decision-making, especially decisions involving emerging technologies.