Morality Policy and Unintended Consequences: China's "One-Child" Policy

Abstract

The ability of government to change human behavior by altering policy has severe limitations. Nowhere are these limitations more evident than in the area of fertility policy and sexual behavior. This paper considers the impacts of China’s restrictive population policy with regard to two dependent variables. First, we attempt to explain the impact of the “one child” policy on population growth. Secondly, we examine the effect of the policy on an unintended consequence: the sex ratio, or the imbalance between males and women in Chinese society. We utilize a time series, cross-sectional (TSCS) research design for 31 Chinese provinces and municipalities for the years 1996-1999. We consider the Chinese experience within the theoretical framework of morality policy and argue that, while China has been remarkably successful in lowering the growth rate of its still escalating population, the policy has had the unanticipated and harmful effect of an increasingly unbalanced sex ratio. While many Chinese have become convinced of the advantages of smaller families, their preference for sons has created a gender imbalance in the marriage market which potentially may have severe consequences for the future of Chinese society. We discuss these implications and argue that given the strong Chinese preference for sons, especially in rural areas of China, the government is now facing a new challenge in its effort to achieve a gender-balanced society.