Abstract
Precipitation totals at annual and monthly scale are key elements affecting water availability for a number of human activities. Thus, the multi-year variability and probability distribution of precipitation form the basis information for water management and damage risk assessment (caused by drought and heavy rains). The main goal of this paper is to analyse the precipitation patterns and to determine the non-exceedance probability (p, %) of extreme monthly precipitation in the region influenced by lignite mining and dominated by traditional agricultural production. Monthly precipitation totals recorded in 1961–2010 at four weather stations close to the analysed region were examined, including comparative analysis of precipitation patterns between the stations. Different non-exceedance probability (p, %) was determined with focus on extreme precipitation. Annual and monthly precipitation was characterised by a large variation of values. Temporal variability was larger than the spatial variability. The highest average sums were registered in July and the lowest in February. Minimum monthly precipitation (<10 mm) were recorded between January and April, and in October at all four weather stations. Maximum totals, amounting to more than 200 mm, were noted in July. The largest share of absolute minimum and maximum monthly precipitation was recorded at the turn of 20th and 21st centuries. Temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation for very dry, abnormally dry and extremely dry months (p ≤ 20%) were characterised by lower dispersion of values compared with wet months (p ≥ 80%). The precipitation probability distribution at p ≤ 20% may be useful to determine agricultural drought risk assessment in the region. Monthly precipitation at p ≥ 80% may be the background for planning drainage system efficiency and assessment of flooding risk of lignite deposits.
Highlights
Extreme precipitation totals randomly occurring create climate-related hazards in the areas that have become more vulnerable due to the environmental transformation accompanying different kinds of human activities, e.g., open-cast mining
The lowest average annual precipitation total has been recorded in Lodz, and the highest in Czestochowa
This paper paper presents presents variability variability of of monthly monthly precipitation precipitation totals totals in in the the region region dominated dominated by by lignite lignite open‐cast miningand andagriculture agriculture activities. Vulnerability of this region to extreme precipitation open-cast mining activities. Vulnerability of this region to extreme precipitation events events has increased to theand activities alsodrainage due to of deep drainage lignite deposits
Summary
Extreme precipitation totals randomly occurring create climate-related hazards (e.g., surface water flooding, drought, etc.) in the areas that have become more vulnerable due to the environmental transformation accompanying different kinds of human activities, e.g., open-cast mining. One of the world’s largest fuel-energy complexes based on lignite is situated in central Poland. It consists of one of the Europe’s largest open-cast mines—the Lignite Mine Belchatow (LMB) and the nearby Belchatow power plant, the world’s largest lignite-fired plant. This region is mainly dominated by traditional agricultural production and the above-mentioned mining activities. In Poland, the heavy rainfalls were 3rd (after floods and hurricanes) in the assessment of the risk from climate-related hazards with the evaluation of an average of 1.78 points (on a scale 0–3) for hard coal and lignite mines and 1.55 in mining communes areas [5]
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