Abstract
BackgroundPayment programs based on milk quality (PPBMQ) are used in several countries around the world as an incentive to improve milk quality. One of the principal milk parameters used in such programs is the bulk tank somatic cell count (BTSCC). In this study, using data from an average of 37,000 farms per month in Brazil where milk was analyzed, BTSCC data were divided into different payment classes based on milk quality. Then, descriptive and graphical analyses were performed. The probability of a change to a worse payment class was calculated, future BTSCC values were predicted using time series models, and financial losses due to the failure to reach the maximum bonus for the payment based on milk quality were simulated.ResultsIn Brazil, the mean BTSCC has remained high in recent years, without a tendency to improve. The probability of changing to a worse payment class was strongly affected by both the BTSCC average and BTSCC standard deviation for classes 1 and 2 (1000–200,000 and 201,000–400,000 cells/mL, respectively) and only by the BTSCC average for classes 3 and 4 (401,000–500,000 and 501,000–800,000 cells/mL, respectively). The time series models indicated that at some point in the year, farms would not remain in their current class and would accrue financial losses due to payments based on milk quality.ConclusionThe BTSCC for Brazilian dairy farms has not recently improved. The probability of a class change to a worse class is a metric that can aid in decision-making and stimulate farmers to improve milk quality. A time series model can be used to predict the future value of the BTSCC, making it possible to estimate financial losses and to show, moreover, that financial losses occur in all classes of the PPBMQ because the farmers do not remain in the best payment class in all months.
Highlights
Payment programs based on milk quality (PPBMQ) are used in several countries around the world as an incentive to improve milk quality
Probability of class change based on payment based on milk quality The means of the bulk tank somatic cell count (BTSCC) geometric means and means of standard deviations for the farms in each class were class 1–132,000 ± 118,000 cells/mL, class 2– 297,000 ± 124,000 cells/mL, class 3–448,000 ± 148,000 cells/mL, class 4–629,000 ± 192,000 cells/mL, and class 5–1,340,000 ± 497,000 cells/mL
The analysis showed that for classes 1 and 2, the BTSCC mean and standard deviation had a significant positive association (p < 0.05) with the class change probability (Table 3), i.e., a higher BTSCC mean and standard deviation of a farm indicated a greater probability of class change
Summary
Payment programs based on milk quality (PPBMQ) are used in several countries around the world as an incentive to improve milk quality. The milk buyers establish ranges or classes of payment based on milk quality according to various components and indicators, such as milk constituents (fat and protein) and the microbiological and sanitary quality of the product (somatic cell count - SCC and total bacterial count - TBC) [1, 2]. Considering that the SCC has a negative correlation with lactose and casein, a high SCC value leads to a reduction in the dairy products yield [6]. This quality indicator is one of the most relevant for milk buyers and dairy companies
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