Monte Carlo simulations for predicting the precision of results and for optimizing data acquisition schedules

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulations can be used to determine the precision of an analytical method if the standard deviations of the component unit operations are estimated accurately. Alternative methods for estimating the standard deviation have been compared by evaluating the success of Monte Carlo simulations to predict the precision of a second-order rate constant determined by spectrophotometry and of an equivalent weight and acid dissociation constant determined by potentiometry. Monte Carlo simulation has also been used with simplex optimization to predict a data acquisition schedule which gives high precision in the equivalent weight determination. By comparison with a naive design, a 22-fold improvement was predicted. A 15-fold improvement was observed experimentally.