Monte Carlo Simulation of rainfall hyetographs for analysis and design

Abstract

Observations of high intensity rainfalls have been recorded at gauging stations in many parts of the world. In some instances the resulting data sets may not be sufficient in their scope and variability for purposes of analysis or design. By directly incorporating statistical properties of hyetographs with respect to the number of events per year, storm duration, peak intensity, cumulative rainfall and rising and falling limbs we develop a fundamentally basic procedure for Monte Carlo Simulation. Rainfall from Pavia and Milano in Lombardia region and from five gauging stations in the Piemonte region of northern Italy are used in this study. Firstly, we compare the hydrologic output from our model with that from other design storm methods for validation. Secondly, depth–duration–frequency curves are obtained from historical data and corresponding functions from simulated data are compared for further validation of the procedure. By adopting this original procedure one can simulate an unlimited range of realistic hydrographs that can be used in risk assessment. The potential for extension to ungauged catchments is shown.