Abstract
Because basin modelling parameters obtained from seismic surveys, boreholes, and laboratory experiments are uncertain, basin modelling results are also uncertain. Particularly one of the central problems in basin modelling, namely the modelling of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion, is very sensitive to parameter uncertainties. Models of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion attempt to predict the outcome of poorly known physical and chemical processen by relatively simple means. For example, hydrocarbon generation and secondary cracking can be modelled by first order kinetics and expulsion by a simple over flow mechanism (Ungerer et al., 1988). More advanced expulsion models with increased physical complexity have been proposed (Stainforth and Reinders, 1990 ; Diipenbecker and Welte, 1991). However, it is possible that increased model complexity does not pay off in increased modelling accuracy due to uncertainty in model parameter values.
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