Monte Carlo simulation-based probabilistic health risk assessment of metals in groundwater via ingestion pathway in the mining areas of Singhbhum copper belt, India

Abstract

ABSTRACT Probabilistic health risk assessment was conducted for metal exposure through groundwater in mining areas of Singhbhum Copper Belt, India. The concentrations of metals showed notable spatial variation exceeding drinking water standards at some of the locations. Hazard Quotient revealed that chronic risks to the local population were largely contributed by Mn, Co and As. The 95th percentiles of Hazard Index (HI) calculated using Monte Carlo simulations showed that the HI for male, female and child populations was 2.87, 2.54 and 4.57 for pre-monsoon, 2.16, 1.88 and 3.49 for monsoon and 2.28, 2.02 and 3.75 for post-monsoon seasons, respectively. The Hazard Indices indicated that amongst the populations, risk was greater for child population and considering the seasons the risk was higher during the pre-monsoon season. The sensitivity analysis suggested that concentration of metals in groundwater and exposure duration were 2 most influential input variables that contributed to the total risk.