Abstract
The key factor behind raw mix design in the cement factory is the appropriate production planning, resultingin high-quality raw material. Quarry managers usually come up with uncertainty-related raw materials due to variationsin chemical composition. These uncertainties required efficient planning in terms of useful insight into this problem.This research provides a detailed explanation of scenario analysis of raw materials used in cement manufacturing usingMonte Carlo simulation (MCS) and indices. Scenario analysis is used to predict the possibility of best, worst and mostlikely cases of raw material’s quality. Whereas, Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the inherent uncertaintyassociated with chemical composition values in order to analyze the impact of truly unpredictable scenarios. Thepredictive results help in decisions related to production planning, raw mix design optimization and increasing theprobability of designing the best plan.
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