Monte Carlo simulation analysis of the PERT method for complete graph with all activities as critical

Abstract

Purpose: The main objective of this study is to conduct a time analysis on a complete PERT network in a situation where all activities in the network are critical. This analysis is more exploratory and theoretical in nature, as it assumes a very specific case of a project and the potential implications arising from it. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis was performed on the full PERT network including 6 events and the resulting number of 15 activities. The numerical procedure was carried out by: determining the number of events and parameters of the project duration, determining the (maximum) number of activities - determining the parameters of the distribution of activity durations using mathematical programming, determining the number of iterations, in each iteration: generating activity durations, determining critical paths, determining time duration of the project and analysis of the results obtained. Findings: The work draws three main conclusions: the distribution of the project duration differs significantly from the theoretical PERT time, the theoretical activity durations affect the critical importance of activities in the project implementation, the number of events in the critical path affects the project implementation deadline. Research limitations/implications: The obtained results depend on the adopted methodology, in particular the numerical procedure for generating times: optimistic, modal, pessimistic of activities and generating activity durations from a normal distribution. Further research will focus on these issues. Originality/value: the main novelty of the work is the analysis using Monte Carlo simulation on the full PERT network, where all activities are critical. Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, PERT method, complete graph. Category of the paper: Research paper.