Montana Statewide Google Earth Engine-Based Wildfire Hazardous Particulate (PM2.5) Concentration Estimation

Abstract

Wildfires pose a direct threat to the property, life, and well-being of the population of Montana, USA, and indirectly to their health through hazardous smoke and gases emitted into the atmosphere. Studies have shown that elevated levels of particulate matter cause impacts to human health ranging from early death, to neurological and immune diseases, to cancer. Although there is currently a network of ground-based air quality sensors (n = 20) in Montana, the geographically sparse network has large gaps and lacks the ability to make accurate predictions for air quality in many areas of the state. Using the random forest method, a predictive model was developed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment to estimate PM2.5 concentrations using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD), dewpoint temperature (DPT), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WIND), wind direction (WDIR), pressure (PRES), and planetary-boundary-layer height (PBLH). The validity of the prediction model was evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with a R2 value of 0.572 and RMSE of 9.98 µg/m3. The corresponding R2 and RMSE values for ‘held-out data’ were 0.487 and 10.53 µg/m3. Using the validated prediction model, daily PM2.5 concentration maps (1 km-resolution) were estimated from 2012 to 2023 for the state of Montana. These concentration maps are accessible via an application developed using GEE. The product provides valuable insights into spatiotemporal trends of PM2.5 concentrations, which will be useful for communities to take appropriate mitigation strategies and minimize hazardous PM2.5 exposure.