Monsoonal Influences on Offshore Rapid Intensification of Landfalling Typhoons in a Sheared Environment over the South China Sea

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the western North Pacific and South China Sea can undergo rapid intensification (RI) shortly before making landfall in China. Forecasting such offshore RI is a great challenge in operations. In this study the offshore RI events in a sheared environment are examined for TCs that made landfall in China during 1979–2017. It is found that there were only three offshore RI events in a sheared environment, all of which occurred to the south of Hainan Island within the monsoon trough in early to mid-July, coinciding with the termination of the mei-yu season. The specific geographic location and timing of the occurrence of the offshore RI in the sheared environment is associated with the adjustment of the East Asia summer monsoon system when the mei-yu season terminates in the Yangtze River valley. In addition to the adjustment favorable for TC intensification by enhancing the TC–trough interaction in the upper troposphere, this study suggests that two environmental factors also contribute to the offshore RI over the South China Sea in a sheared environment. One is the intrusion of dry air associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and the other is the penetration of the water vapor flux associated with the monsoon surge. The adjustment of the East Asia summer monsoon system allows the water vapor flux of the monsoon surge to penetrate the TC circulation and prevents the dry air of the WNPSH from intruding into the TC circulation.