Monotone Log-Odds Rate Distributions in Reliability Analysis

Abstract

Monotone failure rate models [Barlow Richard, E., Marshall, A. W., Proschan, Frank. (1963). Properties of probability distributions with monotone failure rate. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 34:375–389, and Barlow Richard, E., Proschan, Frank. (1965). Mathematical Theory of Reliability. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Barlow Richard, E., Proschan, Frank. (1966a). Tolerance and confidence limits for classes of distributions based on failure rate. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37(6):1593–1601, Barlow Richard, E., Proschan, Frank. (1966b). Inequalities for linear combinations of order statistics from restricted families. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37(6):1574–1592, Barlow Richard, E., Proschan, Frank. (1975). Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc.] have become one of the most important models of failure time for reliability practitioners to consider and use. The above authors also developed models and bounds for monotone increasing failure rates (IFR) and for monotone decreasing failure rates (DFR). The IFR models and bounds appear to be especially useful for describing and bounding the hazard of aging. This article extends a new model for time to failure based onthe log odds rate [Zimmer William, J., Wang Yao, Pathak, P. K. (1998). Log-odds rate and monotone log-odds rate distributions. Journal of Quality Technology 30(4):376–385.] which is comparable to the model based on the failure rate. It is shown that in the case of increasing log odds rate (ILOR) in terms of log time (ln t), the model is less stringent than the IFR model for aging. The characterization of distributions of failure time by log odds rate is also derived. It is shown that the logistic distribution has the property of constant log odds rate over time and that the log logistic distribution has the property of constant log odds rate with respect to ln t. Some other properties of ILOR distributions are presented and bounds based on the relationship to the log logistic distribution are provided for distributions which are ILOR with respect to ln t. Motivational examples are provided. The ILOR bounds are compared to the more stringent bounds based on the IFR model. Bounds on system reliability are also provided for certain systems.