Monnaie et politique monétaire - Le rôle des prétendus "impondérables"

Abstract

<i>Money and monetary policy : the role of the alleged «imponderables» </i> Neither the «purchasing power» nor the «balance of payments» theories of exchange rate determination constitutes a complete explanation. They both have to include consideration of other imponderable factors. These factors can be psychological, traditional, sociological, etc. In the case of the debate, in 1957, concerning the reevaluation of the D. Mark several such factors were present. At that lime such imponderables as the respective «interests» of exporters and importers, of banking and financial organizations, of political parties were very important. Finally, the upsurge of rumours and speculation which had been unleashead subsided only with Mr. Jacobson’s declaration to the I.M.F. that neither the D. Mark nor the pound sterling required exchange rate adjustments. This example shows the importance of defining the laws which govern the formation of public opinion in economic matters. In the author’s opinion three hypotheses may be advanced in this field : 1° The form of an event is more important than its substance as regards the evolution of public opinion ; 2° Emotional considerations are more important than rational arguments ; 3° Frequent repetition strengthens the force of an argument. At the present time, the behaviour postulates of economics are of no help for the solution of such problems.