Monkeypox Cases Prediction with Machine Learning

Abstract

In May 2022, the monkeypox epidemic broke out worldwide. According to the cases collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of August 17, 2022, 13,517 cases were confirmed in the United States. Based on the 2022 U.S. monkeypox epidemic data collected by the CDC, the Prophet prediction model released by Facebook in 2017 was used to predict the future trend of the monkeypox epidemic in the United States. The range of daily confirmed cases for the 2022 U.S. Monkeypox epidemic applied from May 17, 2022, to August 10, 2022, with reporting date. The results forecast monkeypox trends in American monkeypox over periods as short as seven days and as long as 17 days, with all values of MAPE in this prediction having good forecasting accuracy between 0.018 and 0.117. The prediction model’s accuracy can be affected by the k-value biasing due to strange events and the implementation of epidemic prevention policies.