Monitoring Transformation Processes in the Economy Using the Example of the IT Industry

Abstract

The purpose of the research is to develop and test a methodology for monitoring transformation processes in the economy that intensified after the introduction of sanctions by Western countries (on the example of the IT-industry). The methodology is based on the Harvard paradigm of industry analysis (Structure- Conduct- Performance) and includes five stages. At the first, the basic conditions of the industry are assessed and the demographics of enterprises, industry barriers, intensity of competition and economies of scale are analyzed. The second analyzes the market structure that has developed in the industry and the intensity of competition using the concentration coefficient and the Herfindahl- Hirschman index. At the third stage, the behavior of industry enterprises is analyzed on the basis of summary statements and consolidated reports, as well as median values of indicators for enterprises. In the course of analyzing the behavior of enterprises, their market and operational efficiency, investment and financial activity are assessed. The type of growth and productivity of production factors is established by constructing the industry production function. Particular attention is paid to indicators of transformation processes — added value, labor productivity and return on capital. At the fourth stage, industry enterprises are grouped into four groups according to D. Birch’s method: fast-growing enterprises, large businesses, enterprises implementing an aggressive investment strategy and the rest of small businesses. At the fifth stage, indicators of the effectiveness of state economic policy are assessed. Calculations performed based on data from 2,451 enterprises in the IT industry showed that transformation processes in the industry have intensified, new enterprises are entering the industry, their operational and market activity is increasing, non-current assets and equity capital are growing. However, payments for investment activities do not allow us to draw an unambiguous conclusion about high investment activity; in addition, there is no significant influx of long-term borrowed capital into the industry, which hinders its development. Positive changes in the industry are largely associated with active government policy, which promotes the transition to domestic software, influencing the methods of fiscal policy, while monetary policy instruments are not used actively enough. The methodological basis of the study was formed by general scientific principles and methods: abstraction, generalisation of approaches of foreign and domestic authors to sectoral analysis, grouping, comparison, generalisation, as well as economic and mathematical methods. The result of the work is the methodology of industry monitoring, as well as the indicators of IT-industry development for the period 2018–2022 obtained during its testing. The article may be useful for analysts assessing the development of industries within the framework of industry analysis or industrial policy monitoring.