Monitoring the Integrative Complexity of American and Soviet Policy Rhetoric: What Can Be Learned?

Abstract

Research psychologists cannot tell us the ultimate motives behind Soviet foreign policy or the true causes of the cold war. They can, however, use content analysis methods with records of successful application in other contexts to explore the links between rhetoric and action in American‐Soviet relations. This article describes a series of studies on the integrative complexity of American and Soviet foreign policy rhetoric. An ongoing time‐series study (1945–1986) reveals a variety of determinants of policy rhetoric: the rhetoric of the other side, impending or current policy initiatives, American presidential election campaigns, and changes in both the American and Soviet leadership. The paper also describes preliminary work on the integrative complexity of statements of key Soviet leaders on economic and foreign policy issues, demonstrating that the current Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, is significantly more complex than either his immediate predecessors or his traditionalist rivals for the leadership. The article considers implications of the “Gorbachev effect” for our understanding of domestic Soviet politics and for designing American policy toward the Soviet Union.