Monitoring the global climatic impact of direct heat addition associated with escalating energy use

Abstract

Using Budyko's overall heat-balance equation, we estimate that direct heat addition associated with worldwide energy use in the year 2050 will be responsible for a mean global temperature rise of 0.27 °C at a 20 kw t per capita energy consumption for a world population of ten billion people. The corresponding temperature rise between 15 and 60 °N is estimated to be 0.44 °C. If per capita energy consumption during the year 2050 is reduced to 5 kw, (i.e. about one half of U.S. consumption in the year 1970), the estimated temperature rise for the 15–60 °N latitudinal belt will be about 0.11 °C and therefore still not negligibly small. A program for monitoring the global climatic impact of escalating energy use involves precise monitoring of the following quantities: 1. (a) the solar constant 2. (b) the effective earth-atmosphere albedo 3. (c) the net (long-wavelength) radiant energy emitted from the earth-atmosphere system. Both the effective albedo and the (long-wavelength) radiant energy emitted from the earth-atmosphere system will depend on the nature and size of particulate concentrations in the atmosphere, on molecular emitters (especially CO 2 and H 2O), cloud cover, and on the radiative-convective circulation pattern. A satellite observation program that is closely integrated with ground-based and atmospheric measurements and with a detailed program of theoretical analysis will be needed for more precise predictions of inadvertent climate changes and for developing the means to effect desirable global climate controls.