Monitoring shoreline shift under rapid sea-level change on the Caspian Sea observed over 60 years of satellite and aerial photo records

Abstract

The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest inland water body and endures rapid fluctuations in sea level and shoreline changes. The present study investigates and analyzes shoreline changes in the two areas of Tajan and Sefidrud on the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea using aerial photos, affixed with TM, ETM, and OLI images from Landsat satellites, as well as images rendered by Google Earth, all within the time period from 1955 to 2018. Shoreline changes were analyzed using the waterline algorithm on high resolution aerial photos and images from the Google Earth engine. Shoreline extraction on Landsat images was conducted after comparing six different indices, of which the wetness index exhibited the least mean error (1.3 m). Calculations on shoreline changes were undertaken in 4 time periods using the DSAS extension in Arc GIS 10.3 including 1955–1977, 1977–1995, 1995–2002 and 2002–2018. Coastal accretion on the Tajan shoreline after decreases in sea level were evident in the first, third, and fourth time periods, while coastal erosion was discernible in the second time period during significant increases in sea level. The situation, however, was different for the coasts of Sefidrud. The shoreline was divided into 14 distinct parts where the shoreline change rate was inconsistent with the actual changes in sea level. The dismatch between sea level and shoreline changes in the Sefidrud region points to the existence of a different set of factors, in addition to the sea level, which significantly affect the status of the coastlines.