Monitoring Salinity in Inner Mongolian Lakes Based on Sentinel-2 Images and Machine Learning

Abstract

Salinity is an essential parameter for evaluating water quality and plays a crucial role in maintaining the stability of lake ecosystems, particularly in arid and semi-arid climates. Salinity responds to changes in climate and human activity, with significant impacts on water quality and ecosystem services. In this study, Sentinel-2A/B Multi-Spectral Instrument (MSI) images and quasi-synchronous field data were utilized to estimate lake salinity using machine learning approaches (i.e., XGB, CNN, DNN, and RFR). Atmospheric correction for MSI images was tested using six processors (ACOLITE, C2RCC, POLYMER, MUMM, iCOR, and Sen2Cor). The most accurate model and atmospheric correction method were found to be the extreme gradient boosting tree combined with the ACOLITE correction algorithm. These were used to develop a salinity model (N = 70, mean absolute percentage error = 9.95%) and applied to eight lakes in Inner Mongolia from 2016 to 2024. Seasonal and interannual variations were explored, along with an examination of potential drivers of salinity changes over time. Average salinities in the autumn and spring were higher than in the summer. The highest salinities were observed in the lake centers and tended to be consistent and homogeneous. Interannual trends in salinity were evident in several lakes, influenced by evaporation and precipitation. Climate factors were the primary drivers of interannual salinity trends in most lakes.