Monitoring Recent Changes in Drought and Wetness in the Source Region of the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

The source region of the Yellow River Basin (SRYRB) is not only sensitive to climate change and the vulnerable region of the ecological environment but also the primary runoff generating region of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Its changes of drought and wetness profoundly impact water resources security, food production and ecological environment in the middle and downward reaches of YRB. In the context of global warming, based on daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of 12 national meteorological stations around and within SRYRB during 1960–2015, this study obtained standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI) on 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month scales, and then compared the consistency of SPI and RDI in many aspects. Finally, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought and wetness in the SRYRB during 1960–2015 were analyzed in this study. The results showed that SPI and RDI have high consistency on different time scales (correlation coefficient above 0.92). According to the average distribution and change trend of the RDI, SRYRB presented an overall wetness state on different time scales. We found an increasing trend in wetness since the early 1980s. In terms of wetness events of different magnitudes, the highest frequency for moderate and severe ones was in June (12.7%) and February (5.5%), respectively, and for extreme wetness events, both September and January had the highest frequency (1.8%). Among the four seasons, the change rate of RDI in spring was the largest with a value of 0.38 decade−1, followed by winter (0.36 decade−1) and autumn (0.2 decade−1) and the smallest in summer (0.1 decade−1). There was a greater consistency between RDI values of larger time scales such as annual and vegetation growing seasonal (VGS) scales in SRYRB. There was generally a growing trend in wetness in the VGS time scale. These findings presented in this study can provide data support for drought and wetness management in SRYRB.