Monitoring rainfall trends to predict adverse impacts—a case study from Sri Lanka (1964–1993)

Abstract

This paper describes an analysis of long-term rainfall trends in central mountainous region of Sri Lanka. A 30-year 60 rain gauge data set is analyzed to identify the trends in annual and seasonal rainfall. Inter-annual as well as intra-annual rainfall trends are investigated to understand the adverse impacts on water resources, floods and land degradation. It is found that there is a decrease in the annual rainfall in the region, while different seasons show mixed results. The March–April 1st inter-monsoon period shows the highest decrease in rainfall where almost all the rain gauges have recorded decreasing rainfall. In addition to the decreasing rainfall trend, the numbers of rainy days have reduced giving rise to an increasing rain intensity trend. In order to understand better the changes to rain intensity-frequency relation, a universal multifractal analysis was carried out where multifractal models calibrated to first and last decades of the rain series are used to estimate the intensity–frequency relations in the rainfall series. The results show that there is a decrease of inter-monsoon rainfall, while the intensities and return period of extreme events appear to become shorter. These changes could be associated with regional climate changes, and are consistent with projections related to Asia Brown Cloud phenomena.